Guideline
- Relevant = about cross-border trade (tariffs, duties, quotas, deals, import/export limits, deficits) or a policy or concrete claim that would change costs, prices, production, jobs, or demand for an industry or the economy.
- Not relevant: rallies, endorsements, legal fights, media attacks, cheerleading with no policy or mechanism.
- Judge the next year, assuming the stated policy happens, using only what was public at the post's time.
- Neutral = no identifiable material effect. Uncertain = too thin, or effects compete.
- Steel tariffs: steel positive, autos often negative (they buy steel). Give each industry its own call.
- Broad economy = across-the-board claims with no industry split.